Kurd leader calls for ceasefire in Turkey: "No to weapons. Yes to politics"

Aljazeera video report »

Jailed Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan has issued a long-awaited cease-fire declaration that would be a major step towards ending a 30-year conflict…

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ocalan both appear to have staked their political futures on the renewed push to end the 29-year armed campaign for self-rule that has killed about 40,000 people, mostly Kurds.

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Diyarbakir, said Erdogan has made no secret that he was eyeing the presidency.

“He will need to amend the constitution and would like to increase the powers of the president. He can not do that without the support of the Kurdish party, the BDP,” she added. 

Erdogan said he was putting his faith in the peace process “even if it costs me my political career”, in the face of accusations that Ankara was making concessions to Ocalan — routinely labelled a “terrorist chief” and “baby-killer” by Turks.

Ocalan — known as “Apo” — has said he wants peace for the greater good of his people.

“Consider Apo dead if this process fails. I am simply out,” the burly 64-year-old was quoted as saying in a rare prison meeting with Kurdish lawmakers last month.  >continue<

Turk Constitutional Crucible & Erdogan's Ambition

Reuters »

Ascending to an executive presidency would cement Erdogan’s position as Turkey’s most significant leader since Ataturk, but it will require astute political maneuvering to win support from either Kurdish or nationalist opposition deputies.

“Erdogan’s charisma is both an advantage and a liability. It’s an advantage because he possesses powers of persuasion; it’s a liability because of his over-confidence, his aversion to criticism,” said Ihsan Yilmaz, professor of political science at Fatih University in Istanbul.  >continue<

Turkey is undergoing a constitutional redraft with a critical deadline in April. A major revision aims at replacing the parliamentary system with an executive presidency. Current PM Tayyip Erdogan, barred from repeating the as prime minister under the current system, eyes the new post. Turkey, under Erdogon and his foreign minister Davutoglu, has become a major player in the region - both economically and diplomatically, significantly impacting affairs vis a vis Syria, Iran, Iraq and the unfolding Arab Spring. 

related: The Sultan of Istancool  |  Triumphant Turkey?

A Kurdish Wedge Between Iraq, Turkey

Joost Hiltermann  |  ICG »

Although Ankara has long supported Iraq’s territorial unity as a barrier against Iranian influence and as a check against secessionist impulses among its own Kurdish population, the government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently begun to shift strategies. Since 2008, it has forged a close economic bond with the KRG by opening its border and encouraging Turkish investments in the Kurdish region, and its relations with Baghdad have deteriorated…  >continue<

Top Syrian Sunni General Defects

Joshua Landis | Syria Comment »

General Manaf Tlass, One of Syria’s top Sunni Military Figures from the Inner-circle of Bashar al-Assad, has Defected…

The word is that Manaf had been told to solve the Harasta and Duma problems (the growing uprising on the outskirts of Damascus). He did a good job by negotiating with the opposition leaders in both suburbs, agreeing that both government forces and opposition would pull back. The Alawi leadership said “no, that is not how we are going to do this.” They pushed him aside and came down like a ton of bricks on the opposition in both neighborhoods, in an effort to assert state authority and crush the uprising through military means.

Manaf supported a policy of negotiation, flexibility and compromise. He was overruled by the military leadership and has since looked for a way out.

If he has indeed fled the country, the regime will be thrown back on its heels. Manaf is perhaps the most senior Sunni in the regime because he was a close friend of Bashar, he came from the Tlass family which had been at the Assads’ side from the earliest days of Hafiz’s assumption of power, and because he was situated at the heart of the military. When foreign statesmen or Syrians thought of a Sunni who could possibly take power, Manaf had to be at the top of the list… >continue<

Landis’ report - and that Manaf has fled to Turkey - is as yet unconfirmed

Turkey: jet 'shot down by Syria'

Today’s Zaman »

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the warplane that went missing near Syria was downed by Syrian forces and that the two Turkish pilots remain missing. It said Turkey “will determinedly take necessary steps” in response, without saying what they would be.  >continue<

This could be significant. Turkey has hinted at the potential for a major move on Assad. Prime Minister, Erdogon, hasn’t been mincing words with statements such as :  “Those who fire on their own people will go down in history as leaders who feed on blood,”. The considerations faced by Ankara are complex. Intervention has dangers; and yet, the cost of doing nothing might be argued to be worse. So far neither the UN, NATO, nor the Arab League have provided any fig leaf.

related:

Syria’s Fate to be determined by Turkey  |  Would Turkey Intervene?

update: Juan Cole: Could NATO get pulled in?

In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey

The dramatic escalation in Israel’s rhetoric aimed at Iran could well be sheer bluff, a twin message to Tehran to halt its nuclear activities and to the international community to heighten its pressure to that end. Or not. As Israel sees it, the nuclear program represents a serious threat; the time when Iran’s putative efforts to build a bomb will become immune to a strike is fast approaching; and military action in the near future – perhaps as early as this year – therefore is a real possibility. While it is widely acknowledged in the West that war could have devastating consequences, and while U.S. and European efforts to restrain Israel are welcome, their current approach – ever-tightening economic sanctions designed to make Tehran bend – has almost no chance of producing an Iranian climb­down anytime soon. Far from a substitute to war, it could end up being a conduit to it. As 2012 begins, prospects of a military confrontation, although still unlikely, appear higher than ever.

The nuclear talks that appear set to resume could offer a chance to avoid that fate. For that to happen, however, a world community in desperate need of fresh thinking could do worse than learn from Turkey’s experience and test its assumptions: that Iran must be vigorously engaged at all levels; that those engaging it ought to include a larger variety of countries, including emerging powers with which it feels greater affinity; that economic pressure is at best futile, at worse counterproductive; and that Tehran ought to be presented with a realistic proposal. If it is either sanctions, whose success is hard to imagine, or military action, whose consequences are terrifying to contemplate, that is not a choice. It is an abject failure.

The picture surrounding Iran, rarely transparent, seldom has been more confusing or worrying. One day Israel issues ominous threats, hinting at imminent action; the next it announces that a decision is far off. Some of its officials speak approvingly of a military strike; others (generally retired) call it the dumbest idea on earth. At times, it appears to be speaking openly of a war it might never wage in order to better remain silent on a war it already seems to be waging – one that involves  cyber-attacks, the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists and mysterious explosions. U.S. rhetoric, if anything, zigs and zags even more: the secretary of defense devotes one interview to listing all the catastrophic consequences of war and another to hinting a military confrontation cannot be ruled out. President Barack Obama, among others, appears seriously resistant to the idea of yet another Middle East war, yet keeps reminding us that all options are on the table – the surest way to signal that one particular option is…

FULL ARTICLE (International Crisis Group)

Perry's Last Gaffe

Today’s Zaman: Perry to drop campaign »

Perry entered the race last August to great fanfare and high poll numbers. But his standing quickly fell after a series of mistakes called into question whether the Texas politician, who had never lost a race during his three-decade career in elected office, was ready for the national stage.

Perry’s biggest error came in a nationally televised debate in early November, when he could not remember the name of the third Cabinet department he pledged to eliminate….[he] also angered many in Turkey when he said during earlier this week that Turkey was run by “Islamic terrorists,” that it should be expelled from NATO and that the US should cut foreign aid to Turkey, even though Ankara is not a recipient of US foreign aid.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry reacted with a harsh statement to Perry’s remarks, made on Monday night during a debate among Republican contenders in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, saying the Texas governor was a 2-year-old toddler when Turkey became a NATO member.  >continue<

One suspects the bewildering Turkey commentary was the final nail in the coffin. And, if so, it is some consolation to know it is indeed possible to be too dumb in today’s GOP.

Insurgents Attack Baath Party Offices in Damascus

NYTimes reporting:

Insurgents fired rocket-propelled grenades at the offices of the ruling Baath Party in Damascus on Sunday in a highly symbolic strike that marked a new chapter in the eight-month uprising against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad.

It was the second attack in days in the capital, which had so far largely been spared the unrest in other cities.

Whether it caused any casualties or significant damage was unclear, but coming amid a series of other assaults, along with growing sectarian strife in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, it could augur a turn to a protracted armed struggle.  >continue<

Blasts in Syrian Capital  |  Free Syrian Army Claims Attack

Syria: Turk PM Erdoğan turns up heat on Assad

…the Turkish prime minister, once a close ally of Assad, reiterated his criticism of the Syrian government’s brutal crackdown on anti-regime protests and promised that Turkey will continue to support the Syrian nation. “Those who fire on their own people will go down in history as leaders who feed on blood,” Erdoğan said.

Addressing Assad, he continued: “You are on the same path.”

“Nobody now expects the (Syrian) people’s demands to be met. We all want the Syrian administration, which is now on a knife-edge, to turn back from the edge of the cliff.”   >continue<

Erdogan steps up Turkey pressure on Assad  |  Zeitvox Turkey coverage

'15,000 strong' army gathers to take on Syria

Confirmation of an armed force operating with the covert approval of the Turkish authorities follows evidence that attacks inside Syria are causing high levels of casualties in the security forces. It also shows the anger of Recep Tayipp Erdogan, the Turkish premier, with Mr Assad, a former ally whose failed promises of reform have caused a deep rift.

“We are the future army of the new Syria. We are not in league with any particular sect, religion or political party. We believe in protecting all elements of Syrian society,” the Army’s leader, Col Riad al-Assad, said. >continue<