The Problem of the Russia-Syria Relationship. Russia’s been rightly getting a lot of international fingers pointed at it for its ongoing, supportive relationship with Syria, which is an obstacle to international action to stop the Assad’s regime’s crackdown on opposition. Currently Russia and China are positioning themselves to block UN action on Syria in the Security Council and face heavy international pressures over their commitment to this position. So why are they working against international action? Here’s a little bit of unpacking of Russia’s connections with, and their particular interest in, Syria.
Of course, look first to the money. Particularly the money that’s connected to arms deals. Russia is a major trading partner (#3 after the US and China) and the majority of Syria’s imported arms come from Russia (largely in the area of air defense), a relationship first established during the USSR days. (The two just signed a $550m deal for Russia to transfer 36 Yak-130 combat jets to Syria.) After the Cold War, Russia forgave 73% of Syrian debt to the former Soviet Union (much of that debt was accrued as a result of arms deals) and upped cooperation on energy-related and industrial projects.
However, Russia’s regional influence and its worries about maintaining Mediterranean power are significant factors in this situation. As Lebanon’s Daily Star puts it: the last decade has been hard on Russia’s power in the Middle East. With the loss of the Hussein regime in Iraq and 2011’s toppling of Gaddhafi, Syria is now Russia’s “last real bastion of influence in the Arab World.” At major play here is the Syrian port city of Tartous (and also, although less frequently mentioned, the port city of Latakia), where for the past couple of years Russia has been modernizing the Soviet-era naval base for renewed use, and strategically positioning itself on the Mediterranean and in the Arab world. The NYT writes:
Moscow finds itself on the defensive in a frequently disorderly new world order in which Washington appears to call the shots.
The Russian relationship with Bashar al-Assad, and the Russian-Syrian security-based/arms deal relationship, have kept Russia’s hopes for some power plays alive. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may have recently asserted that “We are not a friend, we are not an ally of President Assad,” but that sounds pretty hollow in the face of their obstructions.
For some fuller reading on Russian strategic interests in the Middle East, check out this book. And this informative recent blog post on the NYT. And for all Syria-related blogging, check out That Sassy Arab on Tumblr. She’s definitely worth a follow.
Photo: Dmitry Medvedev and Bashar al-Assad in Damascus in May of 2010, meeting to discuss energy cooperation. Sasha Mordovets/Getty.