In Russia’s personality-driven political system, the third factor is loyalty to Putin. Since Russia’s political loyalties appear to be quite “concrete” (konkretny­—meaning not abstract but tied to specific expectations), this will likely include its own calculations of the potential benefits of supporting Putin openly and the potential costs of crossing him at a decisive time. Between now and March 4, or indeed afterward, Putin and Russia’s elite may have a Machiavelli moment that tests whether it is in fact better to be feared than loved.  >continue<

Mr Putin is the lightning-rod for Russia’s sudden crackle of discontent. His announcement in September that in spring 2012 he would reclaim the presidency from his one-term understudy, Dmitry Medvedev, promised more stale politics. He stirred anger after the election when he compared demonstrators to a tribe of unruly monkeys from “The Jungle Book” and their white protest ribbons to condoms.

…“We’ve been assured for decades that we are sheep,” said Ilya Yashin, a leader of the liberal Solidarity movement. “But… we have shown the whole country, the whole world, that we are a free and proud people.”   >continue<

Alexei Navalny, a vocal critic of Putin and leader in Russia’s protest movement, could pose a tough threat to his presidential bid.

He pledged “extraordinary efforts” to build momentum in the protest movement, which saw at least 30,000 mostly young and middle class demonstrators rally on Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square on Dec. 10 to demand that the allegedly fraud-tainted elections be cancelled and re-staged under fair rules and conditions.

The next rally is set for this Saturday in Moscow, and well over 30,000 people have already signed a Facebook-based pledge to attend. Russian authorities have permitted the rally, but given covert police actions aimed at discrediting leaders and splitting the movement, they may be extremely worried that the protests could become a real threat to Kremlin dominance.

Navalny is the author of the term “party of rogues and thieves” to describe Mr. Putin’s ruling United Russia party (UR), a phrase that went viral in Russia and may have contributed as much as any other factor to UR’s massive loss of support in the election.  >continue<